Hong Kong shoppers exceeded analysts expectations with the city posting a year-on-year rise in retail sales in October – not a fall.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters were predicting a fall ranging from 0.3 per cent to as much as 4.4 per cent.

But official data released Monday by the Census and Statistics Department showed a modest 1.4 per cent increase by value – despite protests disrupting many city streets, falling tourist spending from mainland Chinese and a fall in luxury goods consumption.

That’s slower than the 4.8 per cent rise in September, but still in positive territory. A Citi analyst was closest, picking 1.2 per cent.

Retail sales by volume rose 4.3 per cent year-on-year in October, lower than the 6.6 per cent of September but higher than the median forecast of 3.4 per cent.

Mainstream spending appears to be holding up. Government data shows supermarket sales were up by 2.4 per cent, department store sales up 0.9 per cent, food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco up 4.2 per cent; electrical goods and photographic equipment up 23.6 per cent (largely Apple’s iPhone release); medicines and cosmetics up 7.6 per cent; miscellaneous consumer durable goods up 67 per cent, books, newspapers, stationery and gifts by 4.9 per cent and optical shops up 0.7 per cent.

Sales of jewellery, watches and clocks and valuable gifts decreased by 11.6 per cent in October 2014 compared with a year earlier. This was followed by sales of apparel down 8.8 per cent, footwear, allied products and other clothing accessories down 2.9 per cent, furniture and fixtures down 2.4 per cent and Chinese drugs and herbs down 3.2 per cent.

Observed a government spokesman: “Looking ahead, the retail sales performance in the near term would continue to hinge on the impact of the protests on local and visitors’ consumption sentiment.”

Meanwhile, Lily Lo, anaylst with DBS Bank, said the impact of the Occupy Central protests on retail sales should be the most serious in the first two weeks of October “as things were most intense back then.”