rising 17 per cent in the first quarter of the 2026 financial year. With the medications on track to become one of the most commercially successful pharmaceutical products in history, the FMCG industry is watching their rise with a mixture of excitement and dread. A whole new category of customer The hyperbole has been intense. When New York University marketing professor Scott Galloway visited Sydney in 2024, for example, he didn’t hold back on his apocalyptic warnings, arguing that GLP-1 would upend everything from fast-food chains to healthcare providers. “We have a global pandemic that kills more people than Covid every year, and it’s called obesity,” he warned. “It kills almost twice as many people as road accidents. Everyone’s talking about AI, but I think this is going to be a bigger meteor in terms of where market capitalisation flows to and from over the next 24 months.” It’s no surprise, then, that FMCG executives have been blindsided by its rise. The medication – technically called glucagon-like peptide-1 – was originally prescribed to treat diabetes more than 20 years ago, before its appetite suppressant effects were noticed. However, the watershed moment came in 2021, when the US Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (a close version of Ozempic) for weight management. Fast-forward two years, and the Danish brand had a rival when America’s Eli Lilly received its own green light. Throw in thousands of euphoric before and after-Insta posts, and GLP-1s became an overnight sensation. In 2026, retailers are realising they have to adapt to a whole new category of customer. According to a recent PWC investigation, GLP-1 users consume 40 per cent fewer calories, with their dessert consumption plummeting 84 per cent, and alcohol down a third. As Professor Galloway alluded, users are junking salty snacks, confectionery, soft drinks, frozen meals and all manner of fast foods. But, crucially, in their place, they are buying more protein shakes and bars, meats, seafood and eggs. “It’s very industry- and category-specific,” explains James Deysel, a marketing consultant who previously held senior roles at Mars and beverage giant Suntory Oceania. “A lot of the industry panic comes from chip makers, chocolate manufacturers and sugary treat brands. Yes, there’s a bit of basket-size readjustment, but it also spills over into restaurants and QSRs. The fascinating thing is that it’s not really a reduction in overall expenditure; it’s an expenditure shift.” The response has been swift. In the last year, for example, Marks & Spencer’s launched a dedicated new food range for GLP-1ers, General Mills unveiled a higher-protein version of Cheerios – Cheerios Protein, yes, really – while analysts even claimed the US$400 million acquisition of Bachan’s barbecue sauce by Marzetti was at least in part due to an increased consumption of bland-tasting chicken. (“Chicken tastes like chicken, so it begs for flavour,” quipped David Ciesinski, Marzetti’s president.) As PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta put it, “There are more opportunities than threats, but there are both.” Don’t panic What then should jittery local FMCG leaders do? “For the sake of illustration, let’s say we’re working in the snacking or confectionery industry, which is probably feeling the impact the most,” explains Deysel. “The first thing I’d do is not panic. My investors or my leadership team might get nervous, but I’d take a step back and calmly collect the data points. I’d remind people that in Australia, only about 2 per cent of the adult population is using these products. Even if uptake increases substantially, it won’t get close to the numbers we’re seeing in the US. Remember that there are a lot of players in our industry whose business model is to sell change and make people nervous.” Indeed, Australia’s local pharmaceutical sector differs radically from that seen in the US or even much of Europe. “The entire US medical industry is commercialised at a level most Australians would struggle to comprehend,” says Deysel. “Anyone who’s travelled there would immediately notice it. I don’t know if you’ve been there yourself, but you see pharmaceutical ads on TV and on social media constantly. It’s everywhere. As a result, marketing principles come into play. These products have greater mental availability and are more embedded in the culture. “The US also approaches traditional Western health challenges differently from us. Current discussions under their health secretary reflect a fundamentally distinct system from Australia’s, which remains more conservative and has tighter regulation. As a result, pharmaceuticals generally play a smaller role in Australia’s overall market compared to the US.” Beyond the grocery basket Another point, not often mentioned, is that slimmer, happier shoppers are more likely to want to reward themselves for their losses. Harvey Kanter, CEO of the plus-sized Destination XL group, said he is now seeing his customers buy from more traditional brands. “They can shop at Nordstrom…or Macy’s or any other host of retailers they want to shop at because they’re now a 1X as opposed to a 3X or 4X.” The growing partnership between diet and the wider retail sector has been more than noted by Walmart, which is cannily linking GLP-1 prescriptions to hydration products, digital health services and home delivery. In a Twilight Zone moment, Novo Nordisk has even handed a board role to Poul Weihrauch, the CEO of Mars. Deysel cautions FMCG companies against making sweeping changes in response to GLP-1s. Rather than rushing to reformulate products or overhaul pack-price architectures, he believes the impact on most categories is likely to be more manageable than many commentators suggest. “Don’t knee-jerk into reformulating products or reorganising your entire pack-price architecture,” he says. “If I look at the US data and extrapolate it to Australia, most FMCG pack-price architectures can absorb these relatively small changes in consumption habits or portion sizes.” And while some commentators have argued that the rise of GLP-1s will require a wholesale shift towards smaller pack sizes, Deysel sees that as an overreaction. Unless a brand has a particularly blunt or one-dimensional pack-price architecture, only minor adjustments may be needed, such as introducing a smaller pack option. Instead, brands should focus on the fundamentals that have always driven category growth. Health will remain a priority for consumers, while value has become even more important amid ongoing economic pressure. “Protein isn’t a trend; it’s an ever-present human need,” says Deysel. “If protein is relevant to a category, it was relevant before GLP-1s and will remain relevant afterwards.” The same principle applies to fibre, both as a long-term wellbeing driver and a growth trend in its own right. In other words, continue investing in the attributes consumers already value. “Get back to fundamentals.” The next wave of GLP-1 users There is, though, another looming speedbump on the road. Last December, the FDA approved the first GLP-1 pill, an oral version of Novo’s Wegovy. Clearance for Eli Lilly’s rival arrived months after. According to Novo, first-quarter sales were twice expectations, while Lilly raised its own profit forecasts. “The product appears to be expanding the market at this stage of launch,” said Shams Afzal, managing director at Novo investor Carnegie Investment Counsel. “The fear of syringes may have kept a notable segment of the population from considering the injectables before.” Analysts believe the oral medication could take up to 40 per cent of the market, and around 80 per cent of those on the drug are first-time GLP-1 users. If anything, their rise will be limited not by patients’ willingness to embrace the drugs, but by health systems’ capabilities to fulfil demand. David Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly, recently said their reach would cap out at half of all overweight people. “It’s never going to be a hundred,” he said. “For institutional reasons in healthcare and some other complexities in managing health, it’s never going to be that high.” Even so, that apparently conservative estimate would surely amount to hundreds of millions of users worldwide. It’s not just the form but the distribution of the drugs that could change. Already, executives are whispering about selling prescriptions like streaming platforms, with dose decisions managed on a smartphone app. It sounds fanciful, but it’s a model already deployed by services such as Pilot selling hair loss drugs to men. “We’re imagining these medications may become so common that everybody’s got a GLP-1 app … right there on your phone next to your bank account and your weather app,” Catherine Brown, vice president of clinical services at digital health firm Welldoc, told Reuters. The real risk for FMCG may not be today’s 500,000 Australian users, but the millions who could follow if oral medications become mainstream. Still, Deysel urges calm heads. “Focus on disciplined brand building,” he says. “Now is the time to stay the course and concentrate on what your brand was built on in the first place.” This story was featured in the July edition of Inside FMCG.