Real retail sales growth in Vietnam is running 42 per cent ahead of the last full year’s growth.
Mainstream media in Asia has been quoting government data showing a slowing of retail sales value – but there’s a twist in the data.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade releases retail sales statistics monthly, but uses raw data which includes price increases and inflation. On that basis, retail sales rose 17.3 per cent in September year on year – well down on the 20-22 per cent of the same months during the last couple of years.
But take inflation and price rises out and the 6.7 per cent growth of January through September compares favourably to the 4.7 per cent increase of the full 2011 year, when total retail sales of goods and services reached VND2.004 trillion.
On the government’s preferred measure, 2011 sales were up 24.2 per cent on 2010.
Growth of 6.7 per cent would sound appealing to most retailers operating in markets such as Australia, the US and the UK given present conditions where growth is typically well under five per cent.
The ministry has forecast full year growth of between 18 and 19 per cent over 2011.
It cites declining consumption for the slowing growth but the nation’s inflation rate – especially outside the main centres – has fallen considerably this year which is clearly having an impact on the broader measure.
