Michael Kors result ‘disappointing’

At headline level Michael Kors has ended its fiscal year on a strong note with total revenue up by 10.9 per cent, underpinned by a robust increase of 22 per cent in retail sales.

However, most of the uplift is thanks to the fact the company opened some 142 new stores over the past year and has also expanded its online operations. When these are factored out, underlying growth is anemic – rising just 0.3 per cent over the prior year.

Such a soft comparable number is disappointing, especially as it comes off the back of a very weak comparative in the prior year when same-store sales dropped by 5.8 per cent. Licensing revenue also shrank, down by 13.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis. That growth only came from expansionary activities rather than from underlying productivity gains shows on the bottom line where net income fell by 3.5 per cent.

Michael Kors’ numbers are also something of a mixed bag on a regional basis. In North America, which remains the company’s biggest market, revenue rose by a respectable, but fairly modest, 4.6 per cent. Europe came in slightly stronger with a 15.6 per cent increase, but Asia was the star of the show with a 216.4 per cent increase over the prior year. This variance is no coincidence and reflects the differences in maturity of the Michael Kors brand in terms of both physical coverage and saturation levels with consumers. That said, even with the variances, Michael Kors is showing a much better growth story than many rival brands, including Coach.

While North America remains in growth Michael Kors will struggle to boost its sales in the US over the next few years, mainly because consumer interest in the brand seems to have peaked. It is notable that Nordstrom has started to cut back on Michael Kors inventory, while a number of other department stores are offering heavy discounts on its product. This underlines the continued issues of saturation and ubiquity in the home market.

This dynamic means it is fortunate that Michael Kors has other regions to turn to for growth, with Asia having the most potential. Here we are encouraged that Michael Kors has acquired Michael Kors (Hong Kong), which was previously a separate operation licensed to sell into China and a number of other Asian countries. This will, allow the business to ramp up the pace of expansion in the region and, over the medium term, boost earnings potential. That said, in the short term investments in new openings and marketing are likely to act as a brake on bottom line growth, as indeed will the continued impact of the strong dollar.

Given that it will take time to ramp up growth in Asia, and that pressures at home continue, the start of the new fiscal year is likely to see a slight dip in comparable sales accompanied by a deterioration in profit.

Longer term, the outlook is more positive as Michael Kors reaps the benefits of its growth program.

  • Neil Saunders is CEO of retail analyst Conlumino.

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