Last week, luxury houses including Hermès, Kering and Prada Group published their third-quarter numbers. Results varied widely, but every release reached for the same word: Challenging. Zegna Group’s sales grew 8.2 per cent on an organic basis in the three months to 30 September. Hermès grew 4.3 per cent at constant exchange rates, while Prada Group posted 1 per cent organic growth after stripping out the newly consolidated Versace. Kering slipped 1 per cent on a comparable basis, pulled dow
down by a 6 per cent fall at Gucci.
“Traffic remained the main constraint, while conversion, average price and average ticket remained supportive across most Houses,” Kering said. In other words, fewer people are walking into luxury stores, but those who do are still buying and spending more.
A footfall problem, not a spending problem
Kering’s third-quarter revenue was €3.345 billion. Sales through its directly operated stores, including e-commerce, fell 3 per cent. Gucci, which still generates nearly 39 per cent of group revenue, recorded €1.29 billion, down 6 per cent on a comparable basis. Its own stores fell 9 per cent. The company attributed the decline to lower traffic in Asia Pacific, particularly in Mainland China, and in Japan.
“Third-quarter revenue reflects the phasing we anticipated, in a softer macroeconomic environment,” said Kering CEO Luca de Meo. “The recovery of Gucci remains our defining priority. We are steadily strengthening desirability and advancing our product development at pace.”
With fewer shoppers coming through the door, Kering is closing stores faster than planned. It made 105 net closures in the first nine months (128 closures against 23 openings), beating its full-year target of 100 early, and now expects at least 125 this year, after 75 last year.
The houses that don’t need the crowd
Hermès is the clearest example of a business that does not live or die by footfall. Its leather goods and saddlery division grew 10.8 per cent in the third quarter, a touch faster than the 10.2 per cent it posted over nine months. The company called it “a slight acceleration”, driven by demand for both new models and established icons. Leather goods now account for 46 per cent of the group’s nine-month revenue.
In Japan, Hermès grew 10.5 per cent over nine months and 9.6 per cent in the third quarter, which it credited to “the loyalty of its local customer base”. France grew on the same footing. A weak yen means the Japanese growth barely shows up in euros: reported revenue from Japan slipped 0.3 per cent to €1.2 billion over the nine months.
“Despite a complex environment, Hermès continues its profitable growth and maintains its course,” said executive chairman Axel Dumas. “Convinced of the strength and relevance of our artisanal model, we see our vision as firmly rooted in the long term, and we look to the future with confidence.”
Hermès is not immune to the slowdown, however. Third-quarter growth of 4.3 per cent at constant currency compares with 6.1 per cent in the first half. Asia excluding Japan was flat in the quarter, with Greater China described as “stable over the period in a more difficult context” and Korea the bright spot.
Zegna: Fewer doors, faster growth
Zegna’s quarter is perhaps the most instructive of the four, because the group grew while shrinking its store estate. Revenue rose 8.9 per cent to €433.8 million, or 8.2 per cent on an organic basis. The Zegna brand delivered €283.8 million, up 12.7 per cent organically, and its directly operated channel grew 16.4 per cent.
Direct-to-consumer sales now make up 84 per cent of the group’s branded revenue, up from 82 per cent a year earlier. Its monobrand network stood at 650 stores at the end of September, 20 fewer than a year earlier, with Zegna recording four net closures of directly operated stores in the quarter alone.
“Direct-to-consumer continued to drive our growth, led by Zegna, which delivered a robust 16 per cent organic increase in the DTC channel,” said Ermenegildo Zegna, the group’s executive chairman. “While the global environment remains uncertain, we stay focused on what has always set us apart: our close relationships with our clients grounded in more than a century of craftsmanship,” he added.
Prada: The comparisons catch up
Prada’s nine-month net revenue reached €4.5 billion, up 15 per cent at constant currency. But Versace, consolidated for the first time this year, contributed €441 million, or roughly a tenth of that total. Organic retail sales were stable in the quarter, versus 8 per cent growth a year earlier.
The Prada brand held up, with retail sales up 1 per cent in the quarter and 2 per cent over nine months. Miu Miu fell 3 per cent year on year in the quarter and 41 per cent over the first nine months of last year. The group said Miu Miu’s third quarter was broadly stable, excluding the Middle East.
“In this context, the group showed good resilience, underpinned by brand desirability and strong retail execution,” Prada group chief executive Andrea Guerra said. He added that Miu Miu’s positioning remains sharp and retail metrics remain very robust, while Versace continued laying the foundations for next year’s creative debut.
What to watch
The fourth quarter brings the holiday season and, for most houses, another set of demanding comparisons. Several are counting on creative change to restart demand. Hermès launches Grace Wales Bonner’s first men’s collection and Nadège Vanhée’s couture line in January; Versace’s creative debut under Prada is set for next year; and Saint Laurent and Alexander McQueen will name new creative directors.
Until those collections land, the houses that can call their best clients in will keep pulling ahead.
Further reading: Why luxury brands are losing their feel-good appeal.